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百口莫辩:美联储似乎越来越担心流动性和增长问题

2019-11-04 17:46:22 和讯名家 

  美联储上周三不出意料地下调了联邦基金利率。近日,著名智库米塞斯研究所(Mises Institute)的高级编辑Ryan McMaken发文称,虽然联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)每次都会发布“劳动力市场依然强劲,经济活动一直在以温和的速度增长”类似的声明,但其继续降息的事实表明,它是出于对经济真正力量的担忧而采取行动的

  图片 | Pixabay

  美联储周三下调基准利率,将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至1.5 - 1.75%区间。The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, cutting the federal funds rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 1.5 to 1.75 percent.美联储的利率制定委员会——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)今年已经三次降息。委员会关于降息的言辞是例行公事。该委员会的声明表明,“劳动力市场依然强劲,经济活动一直在以温和的速度增长。”但几乎每次委员会会议的官方声明都有类似的内容。因此,没有任何信息表明,为什么委员会现在降息,在这个劳动力市场“强劲”、经济实力“温和”的时候。The Fed's rate-setting committee, the FOMC, has now cut rates three times this year. The committee's rhetoric around the rate cut was the usual routine. The committee's statement indicated that " labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate." But the official statement says something similar nearly every time the committee meets. So, there is no information here to suggests why the committee is cutting now versus all the other times the labor market is "strong" and economic strength is "moderate."

  委员会的两名成员投了反对票:Esther L. George(乔治)和Eric S. Rosengren。Two members of the committee voted against the cut: Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren.Eric S. Rosengren投了反对票,因为他想要更大幅度的削减。而Esther L. George与她的前任、堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的托马斯?霍尼格一样,立场相对强硬,尽管不像霍尼格那么强硬。Rosengren voted against the measure because he wanted a bigger ate cut. George, like her predecessor Thomas Hoenig at the Kansas City Fed, is relatively hawkish — although not the extent Hoenig was.因此,对于降息,乔治表示:“尽管疲软的制造业和商业投资显而易见,但目前尚不清楚,当风险与行动可能相关联的成本进行加权时,货币政策是不是抵消行业中的企业所面临风险的适当工具。”Thus, George noted in response to the rate cut: “While weakness in manufacturing and business investment is evident, it is not clear that monetary policy is the appropriate tool to offset the risks faced by businesses in those sectors when weighted against the costs that could be associated with such action.”换句话说,乔治认识到扩张性的货币政策有负面影响。In other words, George recognizes that, yes, there are downsides to expansionary monetary policy.尽管美联储的声明没有提供任何洞见,但美联储继续降息的事实表明,它是出于对经济真正实力的担忧而采取行动的。尽管就业数据继续显示经济在扩张,但其他一些指标却不那么乐观。以Case-Shiller(美国房价)指数为例,该指数已跌至2%的增长率,而且似乎正走向零增长。自2006年以来,我们看到了类似的动态。此外,在过去的10个月里,有6个月的新住房许可增长为负(同比)。税收收入数据也很疲软,过去10个报告期中有7个出现同比负增长。Although the Fed statements offer no insights, the fact the Fed continues to cut rates suggests it is working from a position of fear about the true strength of the economy. Although jobs data continues to point to expansion, a number of other indicators look less rosy. The Case-Shiller index, for example, has fallen to 2-percent growth, and appears to be headed toward zero. We have seen a similar dynamic since 2006. Moreover, new housing permit growth has been negative (year-over-year) in six of the last ten months. Tax receipt data has also been weak, with seven out of the last ten reported periods showing negative year-over-year growth.的确,其他指标也显示出了经济的强劲,但如果是真的强劲,为什么还要降息呢?It's true that other indicators point to strength, but if things are going so well, why cut rates?毕竟,即使以最近一次扩张的标准来衡量,目标利率也已经非常低了,当时美联储允许联邦基金利率升至5%以上。After all, the target rate is already remarkably low even by the standards of the most recent expansion, when the Fed Funds rate was allowed to rise to over five percent.

  美联储通过自然利率理论,以及将物价保持在2%或以上的必要性,证明了超低利率政策的合理性。The Fed has justified this ultra-low-rate policy with theories about the natural interest rate, and about the alleged need to keep prices at or above two-percent inflation.问题是,美联储实际上无法观察到自然利率,而2%的通胀标准是近年来发明的一个完全武断的标准。The problem is that the Fed cannot actually observe the natural interest rate and the two-percent inflation standard is a completely arbitrary standard invented in recent years.尽管如此,与其它央行相比,美联储的政策在一定程度上是被动的,因此它看上去仍相对克制。诚然,其他央行设定了一个非常低的门槛,但与欧洲央行日本央行相比,美联储几乎算得上是鹰派。两者都在推行负利率政策,但即使是在最近一次降息之后,美联储的目标利率仍高于英国央行,与加拿大央行持平。Nonetheless, the Fed continues to look relatively restrained compared to other central banks, to which its policies are in part a reaction. Other central banks have set a very low bar, to be sure, but the Fed nonetheless looks almost hawkish compared to the ECB and the Bank of Japan. Both are pursuing a negative-interest-rate policy, and even with the latest rate cut, the Fed's target rate also remains above that of the Bank of England, and equal with the Bank of Canada.但目标利率当然不是美联储唯一的政策工具。为了解决近期回购危机期间出现的流动性问题,美联储加大了购买力度,并扩大其资产负债表。But the target rate is, of course, not the Fed's only policy tool. To address liquidity problems observed during the recent repo crisis, the Fed has stepped up purchases and added to its balance sheet.此外还有美联储为准备金支付的利息。周三,联邦公开市场委员会还宣布下调超额准备金率,从1.8%降至1.55%,与联邦基金利率的下调相呼应。And then there is the interest the Fed pays on reserves. On Wednesday, the FOMC also announced a cut to the interest rate "paid on excess reserve balances," dropping the rate from 1.8 percent to 1.55 percent, mirroring the drop in the fed funds rate. 这使得准备金利率比联邦基金利率低0.2%。这是自2008年以来我们看到的最大差距,这表明美联储希望在实体经济中发放更多贷款,尽管它显然也担心银行的流动性。This keeps the interest paid on reserves at 0.2 percent below the fed funds rate. That's the biggest gap we've seen since 2008, and it suggests the Fed wants more lending in the real economy, even though it's also apparently concerned about liquidity for banks.

  如果我们处于繁荣的后期阶段,这是有道理的,因为这个阶段会带来对贷款的需求增加,但没有足够的储蓄和收入来保证银行通过市场获得流动性。这只是人们在建立在央行信贷扩张基础上的经济中遇到的一个问题。央行官员们无疑确信自己能够驾驭这片水域,但目前尚不清楚他们能让当前的繁荣持续多久。This makes sense if we're in a late phase of the boom which brings increased demand for loans, but without sufficient savings and earnings at the street level to assure liquidity for banks through the marketplace. This is only a problem one encounters in an economy built on central-bank credit expansion. Central bankers no doubt are sure they can navigate these waters, but its unclear how long they can keep the current boom going.(完)

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