According to unofficial theory a 20% decline in a stock index means that it has entered an official bear market and we saw this from the Shanghai Composite overnight following another 3.5% loss. The end of the week in Asia has seen emerging markets record their third weekly loss in a row and the same can be said for some European markets as 2016 so far has been a terrible year for global stock markets. This is now starting to be reflected in profit forecasts for S & P companies across the pond where we’re seeing the most downgrades to earnings compared to upgrades since 2009. Crude prices are also lower overnight but for all the talk about whether oil will fall to $20 or whether it won’t we have to remember that commodities entered their massive bear market by the 20% measure as far back as 2014. This of course has taken its toll on the Aussie, now AUDUSD hovering just above the 0.6900 level which is the major support and if broken we would see fresh multi year lows.
根据不正式的推测，如果股指下跌 20% 就意味着股市已经进入了正式的熊市；今天我们就发现上海综合指数又下跌了 3.5%。这个周末亚洲的新兴市场出现了连续第三周的下跌，欧洲市场可能也是同样的情况；因为 2016 年到现在为止全球股市的情况一直都很糟糕。从现在看，这种糟糕的局面已经开始影响到大家对美欧地区标普（S&P）成份股公司获利的预测，因为和 2009 年的情况比较，收益已经呈现最大幅度的下降。今天原油价格也在走低，不过不管油价能否跌到 20 美元，我们一定要记住，用以上提到的 20% 的幅度，从 2014 年到现在，商品市场已经进入大熊市。当然这种局面也对澳元产生了不利的影响，目前澳元美元仅仅在 0.6900 之上浮动，而这个水平是主要的支撑点；如果被突破的话，多年以来的低点可能就会出现了。
Today the economic calendar is quite thin except for US retail sales and then industrial production data. A greater focus will be put on data going forward into 2016 as concerns increase over the global economy and whilst the US retail sales is not the best indicator for the global picture, it is an important release that the Fed will be monitoring, especially since it is expected to decline to 0.0% from 0.2%.