by Simon Smith, Chief Economist
October 23, 2015 @ 7:21 UTC
Daily Forex Outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi maintained his reputation of moving markets without actually doing anything in the wake of yesterday’s ECB policy meeting. His openness towards further easing was the main factor pushing down the single currency and away from the 1.15 level which has caused previous pain for the central bank. But it wasn’t an explicit promise to do more, rather a pledge to re-examine at the early December meeting, in part on the back of the downside risks from emerging market strains. This takes EURUSD back down to levels last seen two months ago. There was also the follow-through on USDJPY (above 120.00), together with the downward pressure on cable, back below the 1.54 level.
昨天欧洲央行的政策会议上，欧洲央行总裁 Mario Draghi 名不虚传，再次不费一枪一弹撼动了市场。他不反对未来施行进一步的宽松，导致欧元从此前令欧洲央行很痛苦的 1.15 这个水平开始下跌。不过他这番话并非实际的承诺，还需要在十二月初的会议上得到验证才行；这部分是因为新兴市场的压力造成的下行风险。这种局面让欧元美元下降回到了此前两个月的水平。同时这种影响也传递到了美元日元（高于 120.00）；此外，英镑美元也受到了下行压力，回到了 1.54 之下。
Equities also lapped up the news, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 2.5%. This could make for a long few weeks as investors look towards the early December meeting. As we mentioned before, one thing is the intention, the other is the delivery and on that point, there is more debate to be had on exactly what the ECB can deliver at this point in terms of QE, given the constraints they are already facing in buying bonds. For today, there is an early focus on provisional PMI data for October in the Eurozone, where early indications for France suggest some slightly better numbers. No key US data today, although note that Canadian CPI data is releases at 12:30 GMT.
股票方面也有新闻，其中 Euro Stoxx 50 指数上升了 2.5%。这种情况可能持续几个星期，因为投资者都在翘首期待十二月份的会议。正如我们此前提到过的，想法是一件事，要让想法变成现实就是另一件事了；目前欧洲央行在量化宽松方面能做些什么还有很多的议论，因为他们在购买债券方面还有压力。今天有欧元区十月份的临时 PMI 数据，预计法国的数据可能会较好。今天没过方面没有关键数据发布，不过要注意加拿大将在格林尼治时间 12 点 30 分发布 CPI 数据。